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Monday, January 31, 2005 

The Sosa Story

I understand that the Cubs wanted to get rid of Sosa--stat--and that he was a cancer in the clubhouse, yada, yada, yada, but I don't understand how they couldn't find a better deal out there? When Jerry Hairston Jr. is the key player you're getting in return for a guy who did still hit 35 HR last year, I guess that tells you how far Sammy has fallen. At least in Chicago. Anyway, the focus now returns to the field and just what happened to Sosa? My guess is nothing.

The most important thing to keep in mind is that Sammy is not Barry. All "supplements" aside, Bonds is a freak, an aberration. Who has two peaks with the second coming so late in his career? (The answer is Bonds, but it was rhetorical.) If the average player peaks between the ages of 27-32, then Sosa's just following the norm, albeit with an exceptionally high spike. Here's his OPS progression:

Age OPS
20 .669
21 .687
22 .576
23 .710
24 .794
25 .884
26 .840
27 .888
28 .779
29 1.024
30 1.002
31 1.040
32 1.174
33 .993
34 .911
35 .849

Pretty self-evident, no? What this tells me is that one, Sosa's still a pretty good hitter, and two, he's getting unfairly criticized because he raised the bar so high during his peak.